The end of November 2016, we held the first two workshops for REGIMES in Bergen, Norway – with students and retirees!
The first workshop was with students, and we had 17 students and at least 3 teachers in the room for more than 2 hours. The students were from two different schools, and represented students from both media and natural sciences. The second was with six representatives from the Grandparents Climate Action (Besteforeldrenes Klimaaksjon).
We first did participatory conceptual modeling, which was followed by backcasting session of Bayesian Belief networks. Backcasting means that the participants agreed upon a future they preferred within the framework of a changing climate. With Bayesian Belief Networks, that implied that they then chose three variables that would enable this preferred future. Int he end, this resulted in four sets of scenarios that the participants then put in their individual probabilities (“how probable do YOU think it is that THIS scenario will come true”).
Rachel Tiller will apply these findings to the article she is presenting at the ISA conference in the end of February 2017, entitled Path Dependency and Regime Making in the Arctic under changing conditions.