Dr. Yajie Liu from SØF-NTNU is the leader for WP1 PREDICT. The main objective of WP1 is to assess the ecosystem services and changes in these services by integrating social, economic and cultural values in relation to climate change, and to explore potential possibilities how to incorporate these services into potential conflict resolution and negotiation processes at both internal and international levels.
Climate change affects multiple environmental variables that may affect fish population at different levels of the ecosystem. Combining physiological and ecological parameters of fish species along with projected changes in ocean properties, we will project distribution and abundance of a set of marine fish and invertebrates in the Arctic by applying Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM). The DBEM (Cheung, Dunne et al. 2011) combines statistical and mechanistic approaches in predicting species’ distributions and catches. Firstly we will collate biological and ecological data from existing datasets for species that have been historically exploited around the Norwegian Arctic region.